健康保险动态发生率研究（68页）.pdf

目錄.................................................................................v
表图目錄...................................................................................vi
第一章 绪論......................................................................................1
第一节 研究动机............................................................................................1
第二节 研究目的............................................................................................3
第三节 研究架构............................................................................................3
第二章 资料來源与处理....................................................................................4
第一节 全民健保资料库介绍........................................................................4
一、 研究资料來源................................................................................4
二、 承保资料档及住院医療费用清单明细文件之资料介绍................5
第二节 资料处理............................................................................................6
一、 资料除错........................................................................................7
二、 承保人數估算................................................................................9
第三章 研究方法..............................................................................................11
第一节 Lee-Carter 模型..............................................................................11
第二节 时间序列..........................................................................................12
第三节 判断适当模型之准则......................................................................13
一、 AIC...............................................................................................13
二、 MAPE..........................................................................................14
三、 K-S Test........................................................................................14
第四章 实证分析..............................................................................................16
第一节 分群配适法......................................................................................16
一、 现行资料分析..............................................................................16
二、 模型配适......................................................................................20
三、 參數估计......................................................................................22
第二节 住院发生率比较..............................................................................30
一、 住院发生率计算..........................................................................30
二、 比较结果分析..............................................................................32
第三节 纯保费比较......................................................................................36
一、 纯保费计算..................................................................................37
二、 比较结果分析..............................................................................37
第五章 结論与建议..........................................................................................40
第一节 结論..................................................................................................40
第二节 建议..................................................................................................41
參考文献....................................................................................................43
中文文献...................................................................................................43
iv
英文文献..............................................................................................43
附錄...................................................................................................45
简易计算說明书........................................................................................45
附表............................................................................................48
附件...............................................................................................61