工程项目风险管理与保险（36页）.ppt

Contents of Risk Analysis

Analysis of risk events evolution;

Risk Evaluation for :

Ⅰ  occurring probability of risk events,Ⅱ varied possible risk consequences, 

Ⅲ and their conditional probabilities given original event occurring. 

Analysis of risk event evolution

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA, 故障树)

Event Tree Analysis（ETA，事件树）

What is a fault tree ？

Is a special kind of inverted tree logic causality diagram, 

it USES event symbols, transfer of logic gate signs and symbols 

to describe a cause-and-effect relationship between various events 

in the system. Logic gate input output events \"because\", logic 

gate output is the input events \"fruit\". 

The procedure of fault tree analysis

1. Be familiar with the system

2. Investigate accidents

3. Determine the top event

4. Determine the target value

5. Reasons for investigation

6. Draw the fault tree

The procedure of fault tree analysis 

7.Analysis 

8. The accident probability

9. Comparing

10.Analysis 

Supervision of project failure 

From the owner's risk 

From the contractor's risk 

From the risk of supervision