DATA The most important resource（25页）.ppt

The most important resource
Choo Seong Woh       
Chief Underwriting Officer And Head of R&D
Agenda
Why
Granularity
Time Series
Data integrity processes
CIRC Datawarehouse initiative
Comparison of Motor Loss Ratios
Sources: GCR
CTP – NSW
Claim Payment %
Pricing Timeframe
Reserving – IBNRs
Source:  Trowbridge/Deloittes
Identification/Importance- Motor rating factors
Monitoring
Motor Insurance- Average Claims Size
Scenario
Theft Claim Frequency  =   1%
Collision Claim Frequency  = 10%
Theft Average Claim Cost  = $5,000
Collision Average Claim Cost = $3,000
Motor Insurance- Average Claims Cost
ScenarioMovement In Claim Experience In Last 2 Quarters
Theft Claim Frequency Increase By     +20.0% 
Collision Average Claim Cost Decrease By  - 1.20%
Key learnings – Granular data
Dangers of relying entirely on aggregate data.
Granular data cannot be readily purchased.
Alternatives such as sampling expensive and adds uncertainty.
Motor Insurance – Average Claims Cost
Collision Claim Frequency
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
14.0%
Jan-98
Mar-98
May-98
Jul-98
Sep-98
Nov-98
Jan-99
Mar-99
May-99
Jul-99
Sep-99
Nov-99
Jan-00
Mar-00
May-00
Jul-00
Sep-00
Nov-00
Jan-01
Mar-01
May-01
Jul-01
Sep-01
Nov-01
Jan-02
Mar-02
May-02
Jul-02
Data Movement Checklist
Collision claims
Climate cycles
Collision claims – relationship to rainfall
Key learnings – Time series data
Value of time series data
Data integrity processes important
Time series data cannot be readily purchased.
Collision claims – relationship to rainfall
Historical and Projected Vehicle Sales in China
Sources: ARA, Deutsche Bank,South China Morning Post June 2, 2004
(million units)
Estimates
CIRC initiative on data
Good news!!
Working with Public Security Bureau & Non-life association
Pilot being developed in Beijing and Shanghai -  Motor portfolio
CIRC & Public Security Bureau strongly committed
Need insurers support and commitment
Promising…potentially World Class
Summary
Data integrity processes
Cannot be readily purchased.
Alternatives generally adds costs and uncertainty
Importance of CIRC/PSB/Industry datawarehouse initiative.
Data – The most PRECIOUS resource
Granularity & Time Series
Thank you
Questions?